Value notes
What a steam move looks like in the Pinnacle drop feed
A steam move starts at the sharp book and spreads to the rest. How to recognize one in the drop alerts, how to tell it from noise, and when it is over.
A steam move is a sudden, broad price fall that starts at the book with the sharpest prices and spreads to the rest of the market. In the Pinnacle odds API drop feed it shows up as a threshold-crossing alert with a fair price attached, often followed by matching moves at other books. The tell is speed and direction together: one side falling fast, with the rest of the market about to follow.
What starts a steam move
Prices fall when money arrives, but not all money moves the market the same way. A falling Pinnacle price usually means money the book respects has arrived on that side, as this site's dropping odds page puts it. When that money is large or informed enough, Pinnacle reprices first and other bookmakers copy the move afterward.
That sequence is the whole phenomenon. Pinnacle's line drops, the rest of the market follows, and the gap between the two moves is where steam bettors work. The drop alert is the starting gun for that gap, not proof that anything is still available.
What it looks like in the feed
Each drop alert is self-contained. It names the match, the league, the market and the side, carries the price before and after the fall as from_price and to_price, and attaches nvp, the no-vig fair price after the move. The documented example alert shows a basketball moneyline falling from 2.86 to 2.70, a 5.59% drop, with a fair price of 3.04 attached, as the Telegram alerts page shows, checked 2026-09-30.
The percentage is measured as the fall divided by the old price, the same formula the dropping odds calculator uses. A 5% fall on a 1.50 favorite and on a 5.00 outsider carry the same percentage and very different meanings, so read the probability shift, not just the number.
Steam or ordinary noise
Most alerts are not steam. A single 5% drift on a thin market is often just a book correcting a stale price. Three features separate a real move from noise:
- Speed: the move crosses your threshold inside a short window, not over an hour.
- Breadth: related markets on the same match move together, the moneyline pulling the handicaps with it.
- Persistence: the price stays down instead of bouncing back within a minute.
The prematch stream has a built-in filter for the third point. Its recheck=N setting holds each drop for N seconds and sends it only if the price has not bounced back, as the calculator page documents. Live alerts have no such cushion, which is one reason live drops need larger thresholds.
When the move is already spent
A steam move has a shelf life measured in minutes. Once the books that follow Pinnacle have moved, the alert describes history. The check is always the same: hold the price still on offer at your book against the alert's fair price. If your book is above the fair price, some of the move is left for you. If your book has already fallen below it, the value went with the move.
That comparison is the one the EV calculator performs: your price against the fair chance implied by the no-vig line. Chasing a spent move means taking a price below fair, which is a negative expectation no matter how fast the original drop was.
Steam is information with a clock on it. The alert tells you the clock started; the fair price tells you whether there is anything left on it.