pinnacle no-vig odds / expected value / kelly stake
EV calculator, priced against Pinnacle's no-vig odds
- implied chances
- 1/2.10 + 1/3.50 + 1/3.70
- add up to
- 0.4762 + 0.2857 + 0.2703 = 1.0322
- margin
- 1.0322 − 1 = 3.22%
- fair chance, home
- 0.4762 / 1.0322 = 0.4613
- fair price
- 1 / 0.4613 = 2.17
- EV at 2.25
- 2.25 × 0.4613 − 1 = +3.80%
- full Kelly
- (1.25 × 0.4613 − 0.5387) / 1.25 = 3.04%
- quarter Kelly
- 3.04% / 4 = 0.76% of the bankroll
The same reading, worked by hand
Each price converts to an implied chance, one divided by the price. Pinnacle's three add up to 103.22%, so 3.22% is margin. Proportional removal divides each chance by the total, which leaves the home side at 46.13%, a fair price of 2.17.
A bookmaker offering 2.25 pays more than that chance justifies. Expected value is the price times the fair chance, minus the stake: +3.80%. The Kelly fraction sizes a bet to that edge; most bettors stake a quarter or half of it because the fair chance is an estimate, not a fact.
Power removal raises every implied chance to one exponent until they sum to 100%. It takes more margin from long shots than favourites, which moves the home price here to 2.15.
- Thin marginLittle to remove, so the removal method barely matters.
- Sharp money moves itThe book is known for taking bets from winning players and adjusting its line to them, so its price absorbs information quickly and settles close to where the market ends up.
- Readable by APILive and prematch prices for 13 sports come from the feed, so the fair line can be recalculated every time Pinnacle moves.
Why Pinnacle is the reference line
A fair price is only as good as the market it comes from. Value bettors price against Pinnacle because its line is the hardest to beat, so a price above its fair line is the clearest sign that another book is out of step.
- Does positive EV mean the bet wins?
No. It means the price pays more than the fair chance of winning justifies. Over many such bets the average return tends toward the EV; any single bet can lose.
- Proportional or power?
On Pinnacle's thin margins the two usually differ by a few hundredths. Check both on long shots, where power removal leaves a shorter fair price.
- Why quarter Kelly by default?
Full Kelly assumes your fair chance is exact. A fraction keeps most of the growth with far smaller swings when the estimate is off.
- Can the calculator fetch prices itself?
No, it runs in your browser and sends nothing anywhere. To fill it from live data you need an API key; the drop alerts include the fair price for every move.
Before you trust a number
Four questions that come up when a calculator says a bet is worth taking.
Pinnacle 2.10 · fair 2.17 · yours 2.25 · +3.80%
Let the API fill in the Pinnacle side, and the drop alerts point you at the moves worth checking